Presenter: Brendan Meade (Harvard)
Title: Prospects for the physics-based forecasting of large earthquakes
Abstract: Large earthquakes occur infrequently, but have substantial impacts on both society and the evolution of seismogenic fault systems. Forecasting these events is difficult because of small sample sizes, uncertain physics, and the questionable identification of precursor signals. Here, we describe a physics-based approach to forecasting the size and location of future large seismic events. We do this through the development of large-scale kinematic fault system models at regional and global scales. These models are constrained by space-based geodetic measurements from the slow interseismic phase of the earthquake cycle, when elastic strain is temporarily stored before it is released in great earthquakes.
Please email crampersad@flatironinstitute.org for the Zoom link.