Bayes Reading Group: Burkhard Militzer (UC Berkeley)

Friday Mar 8, 2024, 11:00 AM → 12:00 PM America/New_York

3rd Floor Conference Room/3-Flatiron Institute (162 5th Avenue)

Discussion Lead: Burkhard Militzer [UC Berkeley]

Topic: Study of Jupiter's Interior with Quadratic Monte Carlo Simulations

 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/ace1f1

http://militzer.berkeley.edu/QMC/

https://zenodo.org/records/8038144

Abstract: We construct models for Jupiter's interior that match the gravity data obtained by the Juno and Galileo spacecraft. To generate ensembles of models, we introduce a novel quadratic Monte Carlo technique, which is more efficient in confining fitness landscapes than the affine invariant method that relies on linear stretch moves. We compare how long it takes the ensembles of walkers in both methods to travel to the most relevant parameter region. Once there, we compare the autocorrelation time and error bars of the two methods. For a ring potential and the 2d Rosenbrock function, we find that our quadratic Monte Carlo technique is significantly more efficient. Furthermore, we modified the walk moves by adding a scaling factor. We provide the source code and examples so that this method can be applied elsewhere. Here we employ our method to generate five-layer models for Jupiter's interior that include winds and a prominent dilute core, which allows us to match the planet's even and odd gravity harmonics. We compare predictions from the different model ensembles and analyze how much an increase in the temperature at 1 bar and ad hoc change to the equation of state affect the inferred amount of heavy elements in the atmosphere and in the planet overall.